Iran's Regime and Opposition Brace for the Next Round
By Robin Wright
TIME Magazine
Monday, Jan. 04, 2010
Faced with escalating turmoil, Iran's newly militarized regime now appears to be turning to the Tiananmen model to ensure its survival. The theocracy has signaled over the past week that it will exercise extraordinary military and judicial powers against opposition leaders, dissidents, street protesters and even sympathizers to end the growing turmoil. The regime's most urgent goal is to prevent opposition activists from turning next month's 11-day celebration marking the Shah's ouster in 1979 into a counterrevolution against his successors.
But the Chinese model of using all-out force against a budding opposition movement, as used in Beijing's Tiananmen Square in 1989, may not be as effective in the Islamic Republic of 2010. The two country's systems and societies have more differences than similarities. Yet the regime nonetheless appears intent on employing tactics normally reserved for foreign threats. On Dec. 28, the security forces for the first time fired directly into crowds of protesters as the Shi'ite Ashura religious commemoration turned into the biggest nationwide demonstration since unrest erupted after the disputed June 12 election. Hundreds of activists, students, intellectuals and relatives of top opposition officials have since been detained. Judicial officials and members of parliament are now calling for opposition leaders to be prosecuted for crimes against the state including treason. (See the long shadow of Ayatullah Khomeini in Iran.)
On Dec. 30, participants at a government-orchestrated rally chanted slogans calling for the death of former Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi and former parliamentary speaker Mehdi Karroubi. Both ran against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and charged that his re-election was fraudulent. The government gave civil servants the day off to attend the rally, and thousands were bused to Tehran for the event.
The regime also recently took delivery of new Chinese armored antiriot vehicles equipped with cannons that can spray water, tear gas and chemical irritants against crowds, according to pictures on opposition websites.
China's 1989 democracy movement and the current Iranian uprising share some common threads. Both were youth-driven popular movements demanding change, led by loose coalitions of disparate factions that lacked strong leadership. And in both cases, the protesters' demands grew as the regimes clamped down. (See pictures of the Tiananmen Square protests.)
But there are important differences between the two that may result in different outcomes. In Iran, the catalyst was the charge that the authorities had stolen an election that the opposition believes Mousavi won; the Chinese protestors had no history of voting in competitive elections and were mobilized by the death of Hu Yaobang, a reformist member of the communist leadership. China used maximum force relatively early; it contained the challenge within seven weeks. Iran's regime is losing momentum after seven months; demonstrations late last month spread to at least 10 major cities. China banned the foreign press and tightly controlled state media; Iran has been unable to prevent eyewitness accounts of citizen journalists from reaching the Internet, Facebook and Twitter.
The biggest difference may be that Iran is historically more democratic than China, where public participation in politics has been restricted for centuries. Iranians have had a growing role in politics since the 1905-11 Constitutional Revolution produced Asia's first parliament; they've voted for decades under both a monarchy and a theocracy. Also, China has long been a closed society; Iran's Indo-European population has long had exposure to Western ideas and education.
Rather than Tiananmen, Iran's opposition is hoping to repeat a different event from 1989 — the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of Eastern Europe's communist regimes. Despite the regime's growing threats, opposition leaders remain defiant. Mousavi warned over the weekend that the crackdown will not succeed. "I say openly that orders to execute, kill or imprison Karroubi and Mousavi will not solve the problem," said a statement on his website. Mousavi's nephew was among those killed during the Ashura protests; opposition accounts claim he was assassinated.
Iran's uprising appears to have entered a new phase after the Dec. 19 death of dissident cleric Grand Ayatullah Hossein Ali Montazeri, and the Ashura protests a week later. The so-called Green Movement has proven both resolute and resilient, and appears to be gaining wider support from traditional and religious sectors of society once loyal to the regime.
The next key test for both sides will be the so-called 11 Days of Dawn commemoration of the 1979 revolution that begins on Feb. 1, marking the day revolutionary leader Ayatullah Ruhollah Khomeini returned to Iran from 14 years in exile. The public celebrations, the most important political holiday of the year, end on the anniversary of the fall of the government installed by the monarchy, which paved the way for creation of the world's only modern theocracy.
By Robin Wright
TIME Magazine
Monday, Jan. 04, 2010
Faced with escalating turmoil, Iran's newly militarized regime now appears to be turning to the Tiananmen model to ensure its survival. The theocracy has signaled over the past week that it will exercise extraordinary military and judicial powers against opposition leaders, dissidents, street protesters and even sympathizers to end the growing turmoil. The regime's most urgent goal is to prevent opposition activists from turning next month's 11-day celebration marking the Shah's ouster in 1979 into a counterrevolution against his successors.
But the Chinese model of using all-out force against a budding opposition movement, as used in Beijing's Tiananmen Square in 1989, may not be as effective in the Islamic Republic of 2010. The two country's systems and societies have more differences than similarities. Yet the regime nonetheless appears intent on employing tactics normally reserved for foreign threats. On Dec. 28, the security forces for the first time fired directly into crowds of protesters as the Shi'ite Ashura religious commemoration turned into the biggest nationwide demonstration since unrest erupted after the disputed June 12 election. Hundreds of activists, students, intellectuals and relatives of top opposition officials have since been detained. Judicial officials and members of parliament are now calling for opposition leaders to be prosecuted for crimes against the state including treason. (See the long shadow of Ayatullah Khomeini in Iran.)
On Dec. 30, participants at a government-orchestrated rally chanted slogans calling for the death of former Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi and former parliamentary speaker Mehdi Karroubi. Both ran against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and charged that his re-election was fraudulent. The government gave civil servants the day off to attend the rally, and thousands were bused to Tehran for the event.
The regime also recently took delivery of new Chinese armored antiriot vehicles equipped with cannons that can spray water, tear gas and chemical irritants against crowds, according to pictures on opposition websites.
China's 1989 democracy movement and the current Iranian uprising share some common threads. Both were youth-driven popular movements demanding change, led by loose coalitions of disparate factions that lacked strong leadership. And in both cases, the protesters' demands grew as the regimes clamped down. (See pictures of the Tiananmen Square protests.)
But there are important differences between the two that may result in different outcomes. In Iran, the catalyst was the charge that the authorities had stolen an election that the opposition believes Mousavi won; the Chinese protestors had no history of voting in competitive elections and were mobilized by the death of Hu Yaobang, a reformist member of the communist leadership. China used maximum force relatively early; it contained the challenge within seven weeks. Iran's regime is losing momentum after seven months; demonstrations late last month spread to at least 10 major cities. China banned the foreign press and tightly controlled state media; Iran has been unable to prevent eyewitness accounts of citizen journalists from reaching the Internet, Facebook and Twitter.
The biggest difference may be that Iran is historically more democratic than China, where public participation in politics has been restricted for centuries. Iranians have had a growing role in politics since the 1905-11 Constitutional Revolution produced Asia's first parliament; they've voted for decades under both a monarchy and a theocracy. Also, China has long been a closed society; Iran's Indo-European population has long had exposure to Western ideas and education.
Rather than Tiananmen, Iran's opposition is hoping to repeat a different event from 1989 — the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of Eastern Europe's communist regimes. Despite the regime's growing threats, opposition leaders remain defiant. Mousavi warned over the weekend that the crackdown will not succeed. "I say openly that orders to execute, kill or imprison Karroubi and Mousavi will not solve the problem," said a statement on his website. Mousavi's nephew was among those killed during the Ashura protests; opposition accounts claim he was assassinated.
Iran's uprising appears to have entered a new phase after the Dec. 19 death of dissident cleric Grand Ayatullah Hossein Ali Montazeri, and the Ashura protests a week later. The so-called Green Movement has proven both resolute and resilient, and appears to be gaining wider support from traditional and religious sectors of society once loyal to the regime.
The next key test for both sides will be the so-called 11 Days of Dawn commemoration of the 1979 revolution that begins on Feb. 1, marking the day revolutionary leader Ayatullah Ruhollah Khomeini returned to Iran from 14 years in exile. The public celebrations, the most important political holiday of the year, end on the anniversary of the fall of the government installed by the monarchy, which paved the way for creation of the world's only modern theocracy.
Saturday, 02 January 2010
Dear fellow Europeans and supporters of human rights,
By now we are sure you are familiar with the gross injustices that have occurred in Iran following the elections of last summer. We, along with many other concerned Iranians and non-Iranians, have been active in raising awareness of the suppression of people’s liberties by the Iranian government. We realize that many people throughout Europe have been active in showing their solidarity with the democratic movement in Iran and we are very grateful.
However, the reason we are writing to you now is to express our urgent concern over the escalating violence and suppression of peaceful protest, the extremely harsh and cruel treatment of political prisoners (including rape and torture) and the recent arrest of over 80 students in Iran. Over the last six months we have been continually informing the public of the events in Iran but we believe that what has taken place in the last week has placed a far greater number of innocent lives in jeopardy and therefore requires immediate action and deserves special attention.
The purpose of this letter is, first of all, to reiterate the importance of supporting Iran’s recent struggle for freedom, equality and democracy and, second, to kindly ask you to support them in a number of simple ways in order to protect them from more mistreatment and even death.
We would like draw your attention to the following facts:
1. Government reports state that at last 8 people were killed and at least 1,300 people have been arrested during protests after the 19th of December (the death of dissident cleric Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri).
2. Former prisoners have reported experiences of brutal rape and the frequent use of torture in Iran’s prisons. These descriptions have increased dramatically over the last few weeks proving that the human rights situation in Iran is reaching its lowest point ever.
3. Over 80 students from different universities across Iran were arrested on the 27th of December. Among them was the prominent student activist, Bahareh Hedayat, who is the spokeswoman for the student union “Office for Strengthening Unity”.
4. Mohseni Ejee, Prosecutor General of the Iranian courts, has announced that at least, three protesters will be sentenced to death. He warned that more political prisoners will be sentenced to death soon. The Parliament Speaker, Ali Larijani, and some other officials have also threatened that authorities will take vigorous actions against every kind of protest.
As advocates of human rights and democracy for all people of the world we understand that a lot more needs to be done in every corner of the world, particularly in places where people have little or no possibilities for voicing their concerns. The lack of access to media and the suppression of communication with the rest of the world have contributed to governments, organizations and individuals acting too slowly in response to atrocities. However, limited information and communication can not be used as an excuse in relation to the situation in Iran. All forms of media, particularly the internet, has been bombarded with images, videos, accounts and reports about the ruthless crackdown and human rights abuses committed against peaceful protestors. We believe, as citizens of free and democratic countries, that we have the responsibility to respond to their pleas for help – pleas directed at all of us.
If you believe that human rights and democracy should be enjoyed by all humans we request that you join us to help change the situation. You can express your solidarity with the people of Iran by simply asking the governments of Europe, your local council, community organizations, human rights groups, educational institutions and student organizations to play a more involved role in supporting the democratic grassroots movement. In light of the scale of the recent atrocities and the continuous pleas of the people we argue that:
1. Governments must not stand aloof or remain silent about human rights abuses and should discontinue diplomatic and economic relation with the Iranian regime.
2. Human rights groups and community organizations need to take a more active role in pressuring the Iranian regime to respect human rights.
3. Academics from all disciplines must recognize the fact that their voices are among the most important and influential and that their peers in Iran desperately need their solidarity.
4. Student organizations of all kinds need to prepare activities which will raise awareness of the plight of their fellow students in Iran and assist them in realizing their goal of a free and democratic Iran.
With your help Iran’s peaceful protesters can be inspired to continue to improve their social and political situation. With your help the deaths that have occurred will not be in vain and no more people will have to make the ultimate sacrifice. With your help innocent people held in prisons will be treated humanely and released. With your help students will be able to help lead their country toward freedom, equality and democracy without fear. As a citizen of a democratic country you can play a vital role in ensuring that the leaders of the current Iranian regime can be held accountable for their actions including the horrific murders of thousands. However, time is running out for many victims of the government crackdown and we sincerely urge you to act quickly. Please contact us in order to discuss the fastest and best way to respond to the crisis in Iran.
In hope of peace and progress,
Iranian Progressive Youth
January 2, 2010
Dear fellow Europeans and supporters of human rights,
By now we are sure you are familiar with the gross injustices that have occurred in Iran following the elections of last summer. We, along with many other concerned Iranians and non-Iranians, have been active in raising awareness of the suppression of people’s liberties by the Iranian government. We realize that many people throughout Europe have been active in showing their solidarity with the democratic movement in Iran and we are very grateful.
However, the reason we are writing to you now is to express our urgent concern over the escalating violence and suppression of peaceful protest, the extremely harsh and cruel treatment of political prisoners (including rape and torture) and the recent arrest of over 80 students in Iran. Over the last six months we have been continually informing the public of the events in Iran but we believe that what has taken place in the last week has placed a far greater number of innocent lives in jeopardy and therefore requires immediate action and deserves special attention.
The purpose of this letter is, first of all, to reiterate the importance of supporting Iran’s recent struggle for freedom, equality and democracy and, second, to kindly ask you to support them in a number of simple ways in order to protect them from more mistreatment and even death.
We would like draw your attention to the following facts:
1. Government reports state that at last 8 people were killed and at least 1,300 people have been arrested during protests after the 19th of December (the death of dissident cleric Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri).
2. Former prisoners have reported experiences of brutal rape and the frequent use of torture in Iran’s prisons. These descriptions have increased dramatically over the last few weeks proving that the human rights situation in Iran is reaching its lowest point ever.
3. Over 80 students from different universities across Iran were arrested on the 27th of December. Among them was the prominent student activist, Bahareh Hedayat, who is the spokeswoman for the student union “Office for Strengthening Unity”.
4. Mohseni Ejee, Prosecutor General of the Iranian courts, has announced that at least, three protesters will be sentenced to death. He warned that more political prisoners will be sentenced to death soon. The Parliament Speaker, Ali Larijani, and some other officials have also threatened that authorities will take vigorous actions against every kind of protest.
As advocates of human rights and democracy for all people of the world we understand that a lot more needs to be done in every corner of the world, particularly in places where people have little or no possibilities for voicing their concerns. The lack of access to media and the suppression of communication with the rest of the world have contributed to governments, organizations and individuals acting too slowly in response to atrocities. However, limited information and communication can not be used as an excuse in relation to the situation in Iran. All forms of media, particularly the internet, has been bombarded with images, videos, accounts and reports about the ruthless crackdown and human rights abuses committed against peaceful protestors. We believe, as citizens of free and democratic countries, that we have the responsibility to respond to their pleas for help – pleas directed at all of us.
If you believe that human rights and democracy should be enjoyed by all humans we request that you join us to help change the situation. You can express your solidarity with the people of Iran by simply asking the governments of Europe, your local council, community organizations, human rights groups, educational institutions and student organizations to play a more involved role in supporting the democratic grassroots movement. In light of the scale of the recent atrocities and the continuous pleas of the people we argue that:
1. Governments must not stand aloof or remain silent about human rights abuses and should discontinue diplomatic and economic relation with the Iranian regime.
2. Human rights groups and community organizations need to take a more active role in pressuring the Iranian regime to respect human rights.
3. Academics from all disciplines must recognize the fact that their voices are among the most important and influential and that their peers in Iran desperately need their solidarity.
4. Student organizations of all kinds need to prepare activities which will raise awareness of the plight of their fellow students in Iran and assist them in realizing their goal of a free and democratic Iran.
With your help Iran’s peaceful protesters can be inspired to continue to improve their social and political situation. With your help the deaths that have occurred will not be in vain and no more people will have to make the ultimate sacrifice. With your help innocent people held in prisons will be treated humanely and released. With your help students will be able to help lead their country toward freedom, equality and democracy without fear. As a citizen of a democratic country you can play a vital role in ensuring that the leaders of the current Iranian regime can be held accountable for their actions including the horrific murders of thousands. However, time is running out for many victims of the government crackdown and we sincerely urge you to act quickly. Please contact us in order to discuss the fastest and best way to respond to the crisis in Iran.
In hope of peace and progress,
Iranian Progressive Youth
January 2, 2010
Tear gas (e.g., CS, CR, Mace, pepper spray) is used to control riots, disperse crowds, and subdue individuals. It is intended to cause pain, so exposure to it is not fun. However, the effects of the gas usually are temporary. You can expect relief from most of the symptoms within a couple of hours of exposure. This is a look at how to prepare for a potential encounter with tear, with tips on how to respond.
Symptoms of Tear Gas Exposure
stinging and burning of the eyes, nose, mouth, and skin
excessive tearing
blurred vision
runny nose
salivation (drooling)
exposed tissue may develop a rash and a chemical burn
coughing and difficulty breathing, including a feeling of choking
disorientation and confusion, which may lead to panic
intense anger
The disorientation and confusion may not be totally psychological. In some cases, the solvent used to prepare the tear gas may contribute to the reaction and may be more toxic than the lachrymatory agent.
What to Do
Tear gas usually is delivered in the form a grenade, which is fitted onto the end of a gas gun and fired with a blank shotgun cartridge. Therefore, you may hear shots being fired when tear gas is used. Don't assume you are being shot at. Do not panic. Look up when you hear the shot and avoid being in the path of the grenade. Tear gas grenades often explode in the air, delivering a metal container which will spew gas. This container will be hot, so do not touch it. Do not pick up an unexploded tear gas canister, since it could explode and cause injury.
The best defense against tear gas is a gas mask, but if you don't have a mask there are still steps you can take to minimize damage from tear gas. If you think you might encounter tear gas you can soak a bandana or paper towel in lemon juice or cider vinegar and store it in a plastic baggie. You can breathe through the acidified cloth for several minutes, which should give you sufficient time to get upwind or reach higher ground. Goggles are a great thing to have. You can use tight-fitting swim goggles if chemical safety goggles aren't available. Don't wear contacts anywhere you might encounter tear gas. If you are wearing contact lenses, immediately remove them. Your contacts are a loss as is anything else you can't wash. You can wear your clothes again after you wash them, but wash them separately that first time. If you don't have goggles or any sort of mask, you can breathe the air inside your shirt, since there is less air circulation and therefore a lower concentration of the gas, but that is counterproductive once the fabric becomes saturated.
First Aid
First aid for eyes is to flush them with sterile saline or water until the stinging starts to abate. Exposed skin should be washed with soap and water. Breathing difficulties are treated by administering oxygen and in some cases using medication that are used to treat asthma. Medicated bandages can be used on burns.
Symptoms of Tear Gas Exposure
stinging and burning of the eyes, nose, mouth, and skin
excessive tearing
blurred vision
runny nose
salivation (drooling)
exposed tissue may develop a rash and a chemical burn
coughing and difficulty breathing, including a feeling of choking
disorientation and confusion, which may lead to panic
intense anger
The disorientation and confusion may not be totally psychological. In some cases, the solvent used to prepare the tear gas may contribute to the reaction and may be more toxic than the lachrymatory agent.
What to Do
Tear gas usually is delivered in the form a grenade, which is fitted onto the end of a gas gun and fired with a blank shotgun cartridge. Therefore, you may hear shots being fired when tear gas is used. Don't assume you are being shot at. Do not panic. Look up when you hear the shot and avoid being in the path of the grenade. Tear gas grenades often explode in the air, delivering a metal container which will spew gas. This container will be hot, so do not touch it. Do not pick up an unexploded tear gas canister, since it could explode and cause injury.
The best defense against tear gas is a gas mask, but if you don't have a mask there are still steps you can take to minimize damage from tear gas. If you think you might encounter tear gas you can soak a bandana or paper towel in lemon juice or cider vinegar and store it in a plastic baggie. You can breathe through the acidified cloth for several minutes, which should give you sufficient time to get upwind or reach higher ground. Goggles are a great thing to have. You can use tight-fitting swim goggles if chemical safety goggles aren't available. Don't wear contacts anywhere you might encounter tear gas. If you are wearing contact lenses, immediately remove them. Your contacts are a loss as is anything else you can't wash. You can wear your clothes again after you wash them, but wash them separately that first time. If you don't have goggles or any sort of mask, you can breathe the air inside your shirt, since there is less air circulation and therefore a lower concentration of the gas, but that is counterproductive once the fabric becomes saturated.
First Aid
First aid for eyes is to flush them with sterile saline or water until the stinging starts to abate. Exposed skin should be washed with soap and water. Breathing difficulties are treated by administering oxygen and in some cases using medication that are used to treat asthma. Medicated bandages can be used on burns.
Käyttäjän Free Iran muistiinpanot
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